What changed
Model changes move your numbers, so we write them down. Entries are grouped by release wave; anything that changed how a number is computed says so explicitly.
June 2026 — the math wave
Changes numbers.
Recalibrated market regimes from properly-masked data: the previous calibration mislabeled an era of missing data as “calm” and could trap simulations in a permanent crisis state with inflated drift. Crisis episodes now begin and end at realistic rates, and equity volatility matches observed history. Bands now carry both sampling and parameter uncertainty (consistently 90%), individual layoff-risk heterogeneity entered the model, and crypto holdings carry a documented stated-prior risk instead of accidentally near-zero risk.
New.
Conditional questions (“what if I lose my job?”) answered instantly from your existing reading; a sensitivity panel showing which of your inputs would move your number most — also used to order onboarding questions by what actually matters for you; public backtesting: every full reading files a one-year prediction that we score against reality and publish; tail-refinement diagnostics with effective-sample-size reporting; two variance-reduction simulation engines.
June 2026 — the analyst wave
The Quell Analyst: a weekly Risk Brief (your reading re-run, the move and its driver with real before/after numbers, levers re-ranked), and alert investigations with a live tool timeline you can expand — every number in the prose mechanically verified against the engine results behind it. A mechanized numeric verifier now guards every LLM-worded sentence in the product.
June 2026 — the conversation wave
Conversational onboarding: describe your situation in your own words, confirm what we understood as editable chips — nothing unconfirmed ever reaches the engine — and see your first number in under a minute, computed in your own browser. CSV import included.
June 2026 — the canvas wave
The FuturesField: your simulated futures drawn as a living fan — ruin paths pooling in red along the bottom, regime shading, per-path stories on hover (tap to pin on mobile). The engine now also runs client-side for instant scenario and lever previews, always labeled as previews next to the authoritative worker numbers.
June 2026 — the honesty wave
Foundation fixes: one household per user with atomic onboarding; per-user free-tier limits; every hardcoded “20,000 paths” caption replaced by the displayed run’s real configuration; visa relocation penalties firing once per job-loss episode instead of every month; life plans finally reaching the engine; accessibility passes (focus traps, keyboard operation, reduced motion).
Dates reflect the V2 build waves. Numbers-affecting changes always re-baseline our internal golden tests deliberately and are documented in the calibration audit trail.