Personal risk engine · honest bands

Know your
number.

Your salary, your savings, and your right to stay in the country can collapse together — driven by one factor. Quell runs the correlated math and gives you honest odds, with the uncertainty made visible.

Free tier · no credit card · first reading in 5 minutes

MAYA CHEN · 31 · SENIOR SWE · H-1B · SFLIVE
Probability of ruin · 5-year horizon
0%
90% band: 11% — 27% · sample reading · seed locked
0%40%
Top risk factors · component-ES share
Tech-sector concentration
64%
AI-exposure hazard
19%
Visa / forced relocation
16%
TOP LEVERBuild 12-month runway — ruin risk 18% → 11%
125,000simulated futures
9risk factors
M=25uncertainty draws
ν=5fat-tailed copula
5product surfaces
The problem

Every tool optimizes your portfolio. None model the risk of being you.

A real crisis isn't just a bad market. It's a layoff at the moment your equity vests worthless — while your visa is job-conditional. Three risks, one factor, all firing at once. Your spreadsheet can't see that.

Financial planner
Models assets in isolation. Assumes stable income. Ignores visa, AI exposure, coverage gaps.
Quell
Correlates salary, equity, portfolio, visa and health across 125,000 fat-tailed simulated futures.
Monte Carlo tools
Hand you one number — no band, no source, no sense of what they don’t know.
Quell
Every number carries a band. A wide band means thin data — and we say so.
AI money coaches
Invent plausible-sounding figures from a language model. No engine underneath.
Quell
The model never emits a number. Every digit comes from the simulation engine.
The reading

Where it comes from. What reduces it.

Two views, always together. Decomposition tells you which factor owns the tail. The oracle tells you what moves it — computed from the engine, never from a model.

Risk decomposition · component-ES · sums to 100%
Tech-sector conc.
31%
AI-exposure hazard
19%
Visa / relocation
16%
Thin liquidity
14%
Single employer
11%
Health-cost tail
6%
Debt service
3%
Ask · concerns & questions · computed from simulation
MC
Can I afford a year off at 35?
Q
CLASS 2 · RE-SIMULATED · INCOME=0 AT MONTH 48I paused all income for 12 months at your age-35 offset and re-ran the engine under common random numbers.
31%
P(ruin within horizon) · 90% band: 22%–41%
A year off nearly doubles your ruin probability (18% → 31%). Reaching 12 months of runway first brings it back to 19%.
TOP LEVER Build runway first — then the year off costs 1 pp, not 13.
The product now

Five surfaces. One honest engine.

Quell grew from a single dashboard into a place that keeps watch. Every number on every surface is engine-computed and carries its band — nothing is invented to fill a screen.

Reading

Your number with its band — and what changed since last month. The preview lands in seconds; the full 25-draw reading tightens the band as it completes. A sensitivity tornado shows which input moves your risk most.

Ask

Describe any worry in plain words — a layoff, a sabbatical, a move abroad, a market crash. Quell turns it into a modeled scenario, runs it under common random numbers, and shows your number before → after. Save a concern and it re-measures every reading.

Plan

The moves that actually cut your risk, ranked by reduction per dollar, optimized to your budget. Turn one into a Commitment and Quell measures your real progress against plan, month over month.

Analyst

An agent that watches your employer, your sector and the macro for you. When something material moves your risk it raises an alert with real before → after numbers, investigates on demand, and writes a monthly “Your Month in Risk” review. Quiet weeks show a quiet log — silence is diligence, not absence.

Data

Your whole financial life, encrypted at rest — accounts, equity, debt, visa, health, family, even read-only crypto wallets. Import a CSV or PDF statement and confirm what to keep. See exactly what the engine sees before it runs.

Recently shippedConditional answers — “if I lose my job, what happens?”Public backtesting scorecardMonthly review, as a storyA first-reading you can watch computeEspresso dark themeA free live demo
How it works

Three steps to your reading.

01

Tell us about your life

A short conversation — or a CSV / PDF import. We model salary, equity, savings, debt, visa, health and family, not just a brokerage balance.

02

The engine runs the correlated math

Regime-switching, fat-tailed, fully correlated — across 25 independent uncertainty draws. Your salary, your RSUs and your visa all load on the same factor, and the engine prices that in.

03

Honest numbers, with bands

Every figure comes with a 90% band. Wide means thin data — we tell you what we don’t know. Then we rank the actions that move the needle most, and watch them for you.

Why bands

A number without a band is a guess.

Quell never hands you false precision. Each estimate shows its 90% interval and its median. When the evidence is thin, the band is wide — and that honesty is the whole point.

Probability of ruinband 11–27%
Expected shortfall (95%)band $181k–$330k
AI-displacement hazardband wide
— Band is wide: this evidence is recent and mostly US entry-level.
Who it's for

If your life is complicated, your risk model should be too.

MC
Maya Chen, 31
SENIOR SWE · SF · H-1B VISA
18%
5-year ruin probability · band 11–27%
H-1B conditional64% one factorAI-exposure high
JP
James Park, 38
STAFF ENG · NYC · GREEN CARD
12%
5-year ruin probability · band 8–19%
ESOP concentrationNo visa riskThin buffer
SL
Sarah & Tom Lin
DUAL SWE · SEATTLE · TWO H-1Bs
8%
Household ruin · band 5–14%
Both conditionalSector correlatedHigher buffer
Pricing

Start free. The honest numbers don't cost much.

The free reading is complete and real. We don't hide the bands or the levers to upsell you.

Free
$0/mo
One complete reading. Your real number — with honest bands.
  • Full simulation · M=25 draws
  • All 6 headline metrics with bands
  • Risk decomposition + top lever
  • 5 Ask questions
  • CSV / PDF import
Get your reading →
Pro — most popular
$12/mo
Unlimited Ask. An Analyst that watches your employer, sector and the macro for you.
  • Everything in Free
  • Monthly re-runs + “Your Month in Risk”
  • Unlimited Ask · concerns & questions
  • Analyst: employer + sector monitoring
  • Plan: lever optimizer + Commitments
  • Saved concerns that re-measure
Start Pro →
Family
$20/mo
Household mode. Model two correlated earners together, not in separate sheets.
  • Everything in Pro
  • Household mode · 2+ members
  • Couple concentration analysis
  • Life-event planning
  • Divorce / death scenarios
Start Family →

Know your number.

Free to start. Real math. Honest bands. No guessing.